A refundable, advanceable tax credit of up to $15,000 for first time homebuyers, being considered in future tax and economic stimulus legislation, could catapult millions of renter households into first-time homeownership, a new Zillow analysis suggests.

While Congress has already passed billions in aid over the past year to provide homeowner and renter relief, housing will remain a key area of focus through 2021 — especially as Congress continues to grapple with decreasing affordability.

Zillow research found that with a 3.5% down payment on a 30-year mortgage with a 3% interest rate, about 9.3 million renter households in the U.S. (27.4%) would spend less than a third of their income on the monthly payment for the median home sold in their metro in 2020^. An advanceable tax credit would remove for them what two thirds of renters cite as the single biggest barrier to homeownership — saving for a down payment. Other hurdles include qualifying for a mortgage and job security.

A tax credit could be even more beneficial to renters in relatively more affordable metros, like Pittsburgh (40.5% could afford a median mortgage), Cincinnati (39.7%), Cleveland (39.0%), and St. Louis (38.5%). Costly California metros like Los Angeles (10.1%) and San Jose (12.1%) have some of the smallest share of renters that could afford a mortgage, but the program would still significantly impact thousands in those regions.

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